Kaushik Ghosh | Change Agent | Entrepreneur | Investor | Mentor

Energy Transition: Replacing Coal – Use Case for Hydrogen in Steel Production

admin — Tue, 23 Nov 2021 20:22:05 +0000

The traditional process of Steel manufacturing produces 1.85 tons of CO2 for every ton of steel produced. In 2020 the global production of steel amounted to 1.88 billion tons of steel with China producing accounting for a whopping 1 billion tons, with India coming a close second at 100 million tons. CO2 emissions from steel manufacturing accounts for a 9% of CO2 produced in the world. The amount of steel produced in the world will double to approximately 3.5 billion tons by 2050.

The type of steel produced can be divided into two categories, New Steel and Recycled Scrap steel. The production of New steel involves the following steps:

The coal is first ‘cleaned’ in a coking oven. This process converts the coal into Met. coal, where the coal in the absence of air, converting the coal into a plastic state increasing its carbon factor. This process takes place in a coke oven battery which is sandwiched between refractory bricks of a heating wall. The coal is heated to over a 1000 degrees where they undergo condensation and pyrolysis. The volatile materials are removed from the coal, and the end product have the desired thermal and mechanical properties. This is a significant source of CO2 emissions during the steel making process.
In the next step, also called the Sintering process, Iron Ore fines, coke breeze, limestone, and dolomite are mixed and heated to a temperature of 1200 degrees. The finished product is called the Sinter, and is a result of the melting, grain boundary diffusion and recrystallization of the iron oxides. This process also produces CO2.
The Blast Furnace is the staging area for the next step of the Steel making process. Here, Coke, Iron Ore, and Sinter are introduced and heated to up to 1000 degrees, to complete the reduction of Iron Ore to Iron. A small percentage of Impurity still exists, and makes the iron brittle, making it incompatible with the majority of the uses of iron. The BF process is also a significant source of CO2 production.
This next stage of Iron production requires the iron with carbon impurities to be further reduced. This process is also called the Basic Oxygen Furnace or the LD converter. Here the brittle wrought iron is placed inside a refractory lined cask, over a bed of recycled steel scrap. Oxygen is blown into the BOF, and this removes more carbon impurities from the Iron, bringing it closer to the property of steel that we are familiar with.

In this complete process of steel manufacturing till date Coal was an integral component as it was used to reduce the iron oxide to iron, and was initially considered to be one of the last domains for clean technology to take hold of.

However this equation has now changed. Hydrogen can be used as a process component in order to reduce the iron ore, replacing coal. The cost metrics can also be favorable if a vibrant carbon certificate market exists that prices CO2 over 36 euros per ton.

To use Hydrogen in steel manufacturing, the entire manufacturing value chain needs to be re-examined. The Hydrogen reacts with Iron Ore, and on the direct reduction of the Iron Oxide, produces Sponge Iron and Water. This iron can then be introduced with scrap iron, and the resulting BF process with produce raw steel. This process has the potential to de-carbonize the steel industry. The Hydrogen can be produced by Electrolysis of water, utilizing Renewable Energy and battery storage technologies. At current growth and substitution rates, Green Steel will account for less than 10% of the steel produced by 2050. However this can be substantially altered if the price of Coal ceases to be subsidized like it is currently.

GHG Challenge – How do we transition from coal?

Kaushik Ghosh — Thu, 04 Nov 2021 11:45:20 +0000

Coal use is responsible for over 37% of the global GHG emissions. Since 2016, politics over coal has taken center stage, and there has been hesitancy in reducing coal production. However, the best way to get the production of any commodity reduced is to reduce its demand.

So in this article I will explore the Coal demand and supply matrix, and ways to get off the coal train.

Currently there is more than 4.3 trillion BOE (Barrels of Oil Equivalent) of Coal reserves available in the world. Annually, we consume approximately 41 Billion BOE of coal. This means that we have enough coal reserves to last us a 100 years, till 2120.

The Top 5 consumers of coal, which account for over 75% of the world’s coal consumption are:

China: 50.5%
India: 11.3%
USA: 8.5%
Germany: 3%
Russia: 2.7%

The main usage of Coal can be broken as per the following:

Electricity Generation (Thermal Power): 80%
Industrial Heat (Primarily Cement, Glass, & Paper): 6%
Industrial Coke Plants (Non
Energy Chemical Use): 5%
Residential Use (Heat): 6%
Other Commercial Uses: 3%

So if we want to wean off coal, we can see the biggest impact we can have is by making the following two changes:

Switch Electricity Generation from Coal to other Sustainable sources
Switch Heat generation from Coal to other renewable sources for the Cement, Glass and the Paper industry.

Challenge 1: Switch to Non-Coal electricity generation:

Coal is used to produce the base load power. The nature of Electricity production, transmission and distribution is such that we need a stable base load to ensure that there are no grid instabilities.

Typically, the power demand varies cyclically from day to day, reaching maximum during day business hours and dropping to minimum during late night and early morning, but never dropping below a certain base. (Figure 9.1) This base load is typically at 30-40% of the maximum load, so the amount of load assigned to base load plants is tuned to that level. The above-base power demand (above the base) is handled by intermediate and peak power plants, which are also included to the grid. The main advantages of the base load power plants are cost efficiency and reliability at the optimal power levels. The main disadvantages are slow response time, lack of fuel flexibility, and low efficiency when operated below full capacity.

This base load is currently primarily generated with Thermal Coal, Hydroelectric, and Nuclear technologies. The key requirement for a stable base load are:

Cost efficiency – they need to be continuously running
They should be able to produce electricity with a steady state characteristic

So the key question is what can we use to transition from Coal to support our Base-Load power generation?

A key to supplanting coal powered generation will be the development of storage media able to capture intermittent energy and supply controlled output to match demand. Promising technologies are at the demonstration level. The more decentralized distribution of renewable resources compared to fossil fuels will require reconfiguration of the national electricity grid to better integrate power inputs from more variable input sources and reduce transmission losses from the more remote renewable sites, especially geothermal.

Challenge 2: Switch to Non-Coal heat generation for Industrial applications (Cement, Glass, Paper)

Current technology advances are present that give us a pathway to replace coal with sustainable and renewable sources of energy for industrial use. The choice of the fuel depends on the industry where it is applicable. For example, The needs of the Cement industry which needs to run kilns at a temperature of more than 1500 C is different from the needs of the paper industry which needs to process it pulp in the lower 100s, primarily to make steam and hot water.

Potential replacement sources include:

Processed Biomass
Processed Combustible Industrial Waste
Processed Residential and Biological Waste
Synthetic Natural Gas
Green Hydrogen
Synthetic Bio-oil from sources such as Algae, Seeds, etc
And Many More …

There are demonstrated and available renewable technologies available for every process heat applications. The commercial viability of the choices will depend on a multitude of factors, including the logistics of transporting the renewable fuel replacement to the point of use. Not all can be employed at the scale necessary for any given application. In order to ensure an Energy Transition, we need to understand the drivers and barriers that each industry faces.

26 Years of United Nations Climate Change Conferences – Time for Concrete Action?

Kaushik Ghosh — Mon, 01 Nov 2021 21:02:53 +0000

14 June 1992 was an important date in Rio and for the rest of the world. It was the culmination of the Earth Summit, when 154 countries signed a treaty – The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, to establish the Secretariat headquartered in Bonn, that would focus on ongoing scientific research and regular meetings, negotiations, and future policy agreements, that would one day alleviate the effects of Climate Change. Since the signing of this treaty, there has been 25 United Nations Climate Change conferences, the 26th one being held in Scotland, from the 31st of October 2021.

So What have we achieved till date since the establishment of the UNFCCC and the resulting COPs?

Let us have a brief look at the 25 conferences and how they fared:

The Current Energy Crisis and The Energy Transition Opportunity It Creates

Kaushik Ghosh — Thu, 28 Oct 2021 07:49:07 +0000

Headline 1: China rations diesel among fuel shortages.

Headline 2: China orders coal miners to boost output.

Headline 3: Why Christmas may be stuck in a shipping container.

These headlines, and a lot similar to these, are not a full blown crisis, they are the Canary in the Coal Mine.

This is a wake up call that our socio-economic model is careening towards a major wall, where climate change and geopolitical issues combined can derail our very way of life, where the energy security has become the symbolic cog on the wheel which is going to come undone.

However, there is a way out of this railroad to disaster. It is called transitioning from the traditional fossil fuel resources, whose price imbalance and supply chain constraints can bring entire countries to a standstill, to a more autonomous and planet friendly source, which would mean that instead of focusing on the basics, we can focus on the value added components of the economy.

Let me illustrate my point.

The following image from the worldenergydata.org illustrates how much energy is consumed by each sector, and where the energy comes from

Just taking the snapshot of the status as on 2018, we can make the following summaries:

The industrial sector, the heart of our economic way of life, consumed 33% of the world’s energy and fuel, of which more than 80% of this was sourced from Coal and Gas. Electricity primarily generated from coal.
The transport sector, which can be compared to our veins and arteries, keeping the goods and services moving, accounted for another 32% of the world’s energy consumption. Over 92% of the energy used was provided by Oil.
The residential use of energy represents 20% of energy use. Here 25% of the energy usage comes from Gas primarily used for heating and cooking.
The commercial sector which represents approximately 10% of the global energy use is primarily utilizing Electricity, which again is mainly derived from burning coal.
Agriculture and other highly fragmented economic activities account for approximately 5% of the energy use. Here more than 50% of the energy matrix is made of fossil fuels. However, this sector is also the most heavily impacted, as they are not able to influence the price, but suffer the full consequences of the supply crisis we now face.

Additional observations regarding the forms of energy consumed in the energy matrix:

Electricity accounts for approximately 20%. However this mostly comes from burning fossil fuel.
Oil accounts for approximately 35%.
Coal accounts for another 10% approximately consumed in its direct form by the industry.
Natural Gas accounts for approximately another 15%.
Only 10% of the global energy or fuel consumption is currently coming from renewable sources.

So How does data visibility help us plan for the future?

For the industrial sector:

Move the Electricity consumed to that generated by sustainable and climate friendly sources such as Hydroelectricity, Nuclear, Solar, Wind, Biofuels, Green Hydrogen, Synthetic natural Gas, synthetic oil Geothermal to name a few.
The coal used for reduction processes are critical for the chemical transformation of ores into usable metals or base products. Case point, Cuprite ores need coal to reduce it into Copper. Iron ore can only be transformed into Steel after processing it with coal. To extract Silicon for making solar panels we need coal to treat the sand. However, this Carbon can also be obtained from more renewable processes, not just from the ones dug from the ground.
The use of gas as a raw material is again something that needs to be examined by chemists. However, certain end products may be obtained from different methods. CO2 for industrial use can be also obtained from Carbon capture, not just from making CO2 from natural gas. The natural gas used as a fuel can be replaced by synthetic natural gas or other renewable heat generating sources, as long as the process needs can be fulfilled.

The Transport Sector:

Shipping, Cargo transport, and Road transport are the main consumers, can also look into Green hydrogen.
Re aligning global supply chains to reduce the energy footprint of the transport sector can only be possible if there is a better accountability of the energy consumed per mile, and of emission per mile for every product consumed. By looking at the cost impact we can look for more holistic solutions and approach.

For the residential sector

The key will be to move away from Natural Gas for heating and cooking towards more sustainable sources.
Replace the Natural gas with Synthetic Natural Gas where moving away from Gas is not completely possible.
Utilize distributed generation using renewable means coupled with new energy storage technologies such as high density batteries.

The commercial sector

Utilize their real estate footprint wisely and generate a part of the electricity consumed locally
Redefine waste management at source to move towards a sustainable source of the gas consumed for heating and cooling.
Move heating and cooling away from gas based to electricity based.

These simple strategies can help us achieve a more sustained transition from fossil fuels towards a cleaner energy matrix, and also take us away from the supply chain induced economic disaster that we are moving towards currently.

Sustainable Mobility in High Density Cities

Kaushik Ghosh — Tue, 26 Oct 2021 18:38:06 +0000

The world population is currently at 7.9 Billion in spite of a global pandemic and significant global instability that has rocked the world in the last 20 months. There is still a steady rise in global population as was projected towards the middle of the previous decade. This year itself the population of the world has grown by 66 million.

The top 10 countries that has seen the highest growth in its demography are:

Syria (5.32%)
South Sudan (5.05%)
Burundi (3.68%)
Niger (3.65%)
Angola (3.38%)
Benin (3.36%)
Uganda (3.31%)
DRC (3.16%)
Chad (2.97%)
Mali (2.93%)

Clearly, the trend indicates the geographies with the highest demographic growth rate are the countries most susceptible to climate change.

Now, the first key question is – How does this demographical change impact the densities of the cities?

The megacities of the world have also seen a seismic shift since the last few decades. As this shift continues to propagate, African cities such as Kinshasa, Lagos, and Luanda will become major urban centers instead of New York, Paris, or Berlin. As these megacities arrive into the scene, we will also see a significant part of the population moving into dense neighborhoods made primarily of apartments. These cities will be producing a significant amount of pollution such as CO2 and other emissions. Trash and human waste will be other pollutants which will make these cities potential disaster zones.

All this means that governments, policy makers and entrepreneurs will need to start planning for the future, to avoid a demographically inspired environmental rout. Urban planning will need to be tailored individually to the cities taking into account their unique cultural, geographical, and climatic conditions. However, this customization cannot be completely unique. A mass customization model that was previously seen in the world of fast fashion may need to be adapted to determine the policies that will govern urban centers.

During the pandemic, we have already seen a significant rise in shared micro-mobility services in many western cities. There are e-scooters scattered around along with bicycles, mini-mopeds and cars that can be rented by the minute. During the pandemic people avoided shared spaces such as metros and busses, and preferred options which gave them mobility without having to invest heavily on individual transportation. Also due to the work from home policies that were adopted in numerous cities, the utilization of roads by personal transports such as cars fell. As a result civic authorities have started to convert these into open spaces that can be used by pedestrians and micro-mobility solutions. Roads have been converted into green spaces and bike superhighways.

Another important transformation is the Digitization of infrastructure. Technological adaptations mean that real time monitoring of occupancy and projection of utilization is now possible of the mass transit modes such as busses and trains. This will allow for better scheduling and asset allocation.

But how is this going to evolve in the future, to enable mass mobility in the urban centers that do not have a developed infrastructure? Different countries are at different speed of transition towards a sustainable mass mobility. However one this is for certain, Shared mobility will be the future. The key areas of consideration will be:

Sustainable Propulsion

The transportation of the future has to be powered by a sustainable energy matrix to ensure that the global CO2 objectives will be met. This means that mobility of the future will either be powered by Electricity, Green Hydrogen, or Synthetic biofuels or biogas. In the case of Biofuels or Biogas, internal combustion engines can still be used with minimal conversion. This would have the least affordability Impact, as the least amount of changes will be required from an engineering standpoint. However, producing biofuels or biogas from renewable sources will have an impact freshwater availability if the raw feed for these fuels are grown in farms. However, if the synthetic biofuels are derived from Algae, algae harvesting can be done from brackish water and seawater based algae farms.

Autonomy

Mass mobility will require autonomy of the transit systems. Currently the e-scooters and e-bicycles are not autonomous units. This would mean that their utilization rate and health depends on the ability of the rider. However, for mass mobility systems, the user should not operate the vehicle. The organizations that are making strides in automation will be the winners of tomorrow as far as mass mobility is concerned.

Safety

Safety is going to be an integral part of the equation. An autonomous vehicle that transits different users will need to be reliable, dependable and safe. An autonomous vehicle needs to be safe for the user, as well as for the other people and assets sharing its environment. This would mean that mobility systems will be considered an utility, and will need to meet a safety criteria that is usually reserved for electrical, gas and water service providers.

Integrated Mobility Systems

Mobility systems of the future will have to function as a system. They will need to provide an integrated service whose mandate will be to enable a person to reach from Point A to Point B. The system will therefore need to integrate the different routes and modes that will traverse them. This will be achieved by Digitization and connectivity.

Affordability

Given that the future economic paradigm is still opaque, affordability of the future mobility systems will determine how easily they will be adopted by the new urban centers, which belong to current under developed economies.

In Conclusion, we are currently sitting in an inflection point for the transportation at large, and mass mobility in particular. The winners are still to be determined. The weapons of choice still to be identified. We now need to make investment decisions that can give us a head-start towards a cleaner future, or take us back to an inequitable future.

The choices is ours.

The Energy Transition Conundrum

Kaushik Ghosh — Mon, 25 Oct 2021 10:21:37 +0000

Introduction

Ever since humanity has discovered fire, our individual need for energy has only increased exponentially along with the increase in our perceived needs. With the passage of time, multiple civilizations have discovered, exploited and utilized multiple sources of energy producing fuels, some from renewable sources and others from fossilized sources. These multiple sources have propelled growth, development, and prosperity.

In our ever lasting quest for energy resources, we have unfortunately created a condition that has now started to threaten the very lifestyle that these resources helped create. Now we are at a crucial juncture where our choices regarding the fuel and energy resources we will continue to use will determine if we are even able to maintain a safe, secure and healthy environment to continue to live in.

This critical juncture, the inflection point now being referred to as Energy Transition, is presenting many opportunities and choices to countries, organizations and individuals, and allowing each to define themselves as winners or losers in the new paradigm

The Energy Value Chain

The Energy Value Chain is a complex composition of resources and actors, and can be broken down in multiple stages based on the activity and players involved. Each stage presents its own opportunities, costs, and risks. Demystifying these various stages will increase grassroot participation and help in achieving the transition goals faster.

Energy Generation or Upstream

Also referred to as Upstream activities, this is the exploitation of the raw materials which when processed, gives us energy.

In the Industrial Era, the primary upstream sources has been fossil fuels such as Coal and Oil & Gas, Nuclear (which is a non renewable but non-CO2 polluting source), and renewable sources such as Animal power, Sun, wind, and water. Additional sources that have been harnessed include Geothermal energy sources. New research has focused on additional sources such as Hydrogen, and Fusion, which are either in a development or research stage.

For The transition from a ‘Dirty’ to a ‘Clean’ source, the key will be to focus on a multitude of ‘renewable’ or non-polluting sources.

Transportation

While personal transportation has already moved towards electrification, commercial transportation will move towards hydrogen use. Fuel cell batteries are more suited for time sensitive supply chain operations. Hydrogen fuel cells can be refueled in minutes instead of hours. Emissions are still localized like in the case of Internal combustion engines but the emissions are clean – Water instead of other noxious gases. The weight of the drive train will be distributed throughout the vehicle compared to the bottom of the vehicle in the case of electric vehicles. This will help in better logistic planning, better load distribution and therefore the stability of the vehicles themselves, and better return on investment for logistic operations. Green hydrogen can be produced and then transported using Green Ammonia. Hydrogen powered vehicles will drive further and will need lower initial infrastructure investments. The technology is close to mature and we will soon see a steady influx of hydrogen powered commercial vehicles.

For Water transports, flexible fuel systems will be used. We shall see the use of Green Hydrogen, Synthetic Natural Gas derived from biological waste, Synthetic oils derived from Algae, and Ammonia will be used. Other improvements will be updated propellor systems, electrical power for near shower and inland water transportation systems, and optimized pumps in the propulsion systems. Given that the energy density of the battery systems are not sufficient enough to power container or cargo ships, use of synthetic fuels and Green Hydrogen has the highest contribution towards greening marine transportation.

For the Aviation industry, the choice of an energy source that can be scaled up to fuel commercial aircrafts was highly debated. But it seems like more players are settling towards Hydrogen as the fuel source of Choice for commercial and cargo aviation. Different Hydrogen pathways are being examined, such as hydrogen combustion in modified gas turbines and hydrogen fuel cells. Synthetic fuel derived from non-fossil resources are also in consideration, but doesn’t seem to be winning the race.

Electricity

For the Electricity grids, the key concern is about Grid Stability. We have been using Solar and Wind energy for over a decade now, but the reliability of Solar and Wind is dependent on the stability and predictability of climatic conditions. With the impact of climate change, it is becoming more difficult to predict the atmospheric changes in a longer timescale. This means that for the basic grid stability, a more dependable source will be required to replace the thermal fuel sources. These replacement sources can be:

Alternative fuels derived from Solid waste (Industrial or Municipal). However the waste derived fuels tend to usually have low energy density compared to Petroleum Coke and Bituminous Coke. But use of alternative fuels gives the quickest and cheapest transition for fossil fuel based thermal energy generation plants. Alternative fuels still produce CO2, but the CO2 produced are carbon neutral as they come from renewable sources generally.
Another traditional source which is becoming less dependable is Hydro power. Due to Climate change, the precipitation patters are getting altered significantly. This is creating either drought conditions or flood conditions in the fresh water rivers of the world, making hydroelectric power less predictable. But the use case of hydroelectric power remains strong as a clean source of energy. Additionally, smaller turbines and propellors can be utilized to make more distributed generation systems.
Nuclear power remains one of the cleanest source of energy generation. Nuclear power is by no means renewable. There is a limited amount of nuclear fuels like Uranium available. However, the world is starting to move more towards thorium, which is more stable nuclear fuel, albeit more expensive. The investment case for Thorium powered power plants are becoming more apparent.

Industrial

For Industrial Use, multiple transitory effects are starting to take place. Electric Arc furnaces are becoming more prevalent in replacing the thermal foundries in order to generate the heat required to reprocess metals. However for chemical reduction purposes that is typically required in Blast Furnaces for example, we will still need coal. However we can look at wood derived coal which even though has a lower coal content than Anthracite, can be further refined to make it more usable. The costs are significantly high, but that also means we are moving more towards recycling of metals that have already been mined and processed. Alternative fuels are being utilized for more industrial processes. In cement kilns, Animal waste is used as fuel. This animal waste, called Bone Meal, is allowing the waste of the abattoirs to be cleanly disposed off, preventing the contamination of ground water resources. Additionally, other biological waste such as dried husks and dried sludge are also being utilized as fuel sources.

Transmission - Midstream

Transmission and Distribution are also referred to as the Midstream component of the energy value chain. In the case of Oil and Gas, this involves the Storage and transportation of the fuels. In the case of Electricity, it involves the High Voltage Transmission Lines.

In order to move the needle significantly in the Energy Transition of Midstream activity, Traditionally midstream companies had excellent cash flows due to their lower initial investment costs compared to Upstream companies, and better revenue projection and cost management. This meant that traditional midstream companies attracted a lot of investors. The substitution of fossil fuels with synthetic fuels will mean that the demand for storage and handling of biofuels will continue to increase, and will continue to attract investors. New areas of development will include areas such as Digital Asset Management.

The inclusion of renewable variable components to the energy matrix will mean that Smart Grid management will become of increasing importance. This will see a higher technical development and higher investment into smart grid monitoring and management. The migration from Thermal to Nuclear power would mean that the demand for transmission grid services will increase. The reason for Higher voltages in transmission of electricity is to reduce the losses suffered. The main reasons for transmission losses include lengthy transmission lines, inadequate conduction parameters of the lines, distance of the transformers from the load centers, low power factor, feeder phase current, load balancing, and bad workmanship. Utilization of Smart Grids become critical to achieve better optimization and reduce losses and instability.

Retail & Distribution - Downstream

Distribution and retail activities are primarily referred to as Downstream activities. In order to make a significant transition and meet the Sustainability goals, we will need to reconfigure our downstream activities. For Road transportation, we will need to move towards charging stations for electric vehicles and Hydrogen refuel centers for Hydrogen powered vehicles. Investments and further development will be required for Rapid Charging Technologies. Green Hydrogen Storage and Transport Technologies will need further investment and patronage.

For Electricity grids, the Distribution companies will need to also move towards Smart Metering, Grid Connected Distributed Renewable Generation which provides a reverse loop, and feeds power into the electric grid. New business models needs to be created to help users switch from ‘Dirty’ to ‘Clean’ Energy.

Conclusion

When Henry Ford propagated the mass manufacturing of Automobiles, the key concern of the communities in question was the pollution that was created by horse drawn carriages. Civic authorities in the major urban centers were tired of cleaning the horse manure off the streets. The stench of horse manure was a added hassle. The bio hazard created from the accumulating flies that would then transmit diseases were of concern as well. However little did the industrial titans of the 20th century know that the very solution to a 19th century pollution problem was becoming the progenitor of a new sustainability crisis. The choices that we face today are similar. However, we have the benefit of hindsight, and access to a broader arsenal of technology choices. The transition to Clean Energy is more achievable today than it has been ever before.

Climate Change Impact on Health – Vector Borne Diseases

Kaushik Ghosh — Thu, 21 Oct 2021 10:12:45 +0000

While the world is still reeling under the effects of the Corona Virus, there are new disease trends that are creeping up and catching us unawares. A lot of these trends are primarily fed by the change in climatic conditions, introducing new vectors and their dangerous payloads.

So The primary question that arises in the mind of many is – Why should a small rise in Global temperature have such an impact on the Vector Borne Diseases (VBD) such as Zika, Dengue, Malaria, Lyme disease, Encephalitis, just to name a few, across the globe?

The term ‘Climate Change’ is too vague for most people. Unless the conceptual term can be grounded with factual events, it is hard for many to create causality links with diseases.

Impact of Climate Change on Climatic Systems:

As the world warms, the climate systems that are affected are the following:

The Atmosphere, extending hundreds of kilometers from the surface of the Earth, containing the essential elements such as Nitrogen, Oxygen, Carbon-di-Oxide, and Water Vapor, that support life as we know it.
The Hydrosphere, that is covering over 70% of the world’s surface, which includes all the Oceans. The Oceans are the main Heat Sink of our planet Earth, as well as an important CO2 sink. However, its capacity to store Heat and CO2 is limited.
The Cryosphere, which contains all the Ice in the world. This includes sea ice, ice sheets, permafrost, glacial regions, and snow cover.
The Earth’s Crust, that is made up of the Mountains and Valleys, that shape the world’s wind patterns.
The Biosphere, which is basically made up of all the living entities such as plants, vegetation, rainforests, savannahs, as well as the insects and other animals. Mankind is also part of the Biosphere.

The warming earth causes more energy reaches the tropical regions and the subsequent energy imbalance with the polar regions drive the atmospheric and ocean currents.

With Climate change, we notice the following effects on our Climatic Systems:

Atmosphere:
1. An increase the density of CO2 in the Atmosphere warms the air, and increases its ability to withhold moisture.
2. The amount of water vapor in the a moisture increases. This increases the amount of cloud cover, and therefore increases the amount of heat that is trapped within the Earth’s Energy Budget.
3. By altering the energy differential between the Poles and the Tropics, the major atmospheric currents such as the Jet Stream are impacted. This changes the Weather patterns that we experience. Higher amounts of rainfall within a shorter period of time, greater number of tropical storms that can then become cyclones or hurricanes, more localized tornadoes, etc. are thus witnessed.
4. Sudden Snow storms, Polar Vortex events further south of the Poles, are also experienced.
Hydrosphere & Cryosphere:
1. The increase in temperature causes the Cryosphere to melt. As the sea ice melt, the salinity of the oceans are decreased. This alters the ocean currents, which in turn feed further instability into the Atmospheric systems.
2. The change in Hydrology and Atmospheric conditions alter the Earth’s crust. Changes in the shapes of the mountains and the valleys create a further feedback loop with the Atmosphere, Hydrosphere and Cryosphere.
Biosphere:
1. Finally as the other climatic systems get modified, the elements of the biosphere also change their form, factor and location. For example, desertification of the savannahs will see changes in the food cycle and therefore the animals which inhabit it.

Impact on Vectors:

As the changes in the Biosphere become more entrenched, we witness the changes in the lifecycles of the insects and other disease carrying vectors.

For example,

Mosquitos become more prevalent in higher altitudes and colder temperatures.
Ticks and other insects which would typically die out in the winter continue to thrive.
Parasites which would typically become dormant in extreme temperatures will now continue to function in an active state.

This would mean that a previously unsuitable location or time will now become suitable for many vectors and their dangerous payloads. These vectors then start moving to new favorable regions, and the diseases start spreading more and more.

Among these species are insects such as mosquitoes, ticks and flies that can transmit illnesses called vector-borne diseases (VBDs). Malaria, Zika virus, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, Japanese encephalitis, Lyme disease, typhus, leishmaniasis and sleeping sickness are examples of VBDs. Every year, VBDs cause more than 700,000 deaths.

The Spread of Vector Borne Diseases:

A vector borne disease consist of three components:

The Parasite that cause the disease, for example the malaria causing plasmodium parasite,
The Vector that carries the parasite, for example the Mosquito, and
The host such as humans and livestock.

Insects may become infectious mainly after the ingestion of a pathogen through a bloodmeal on an infected host – for example, when a mosquito bites a sick human. Then, the pathogen develops within the insect during an incubation period, and this causes the insect to act as an infectious vector when transmitting the pathogen to a non-immune host. Finally, during its next bloodmeal for mosquitoes, flies and ticks, the vector transmits the pathogen into another host.

The Role of Temperature in the Spread of the Disease:

The Incubation period (EIP), between the time when a vector ingests the pathogen and the time when that vector is ready to transmit the pathogen to another host, strongly depends on temperature. For each vector and pathogen, there is an ideal temperature at which EIP is minimal; a shorter EIP is advantageous for disease transmission since vectors become infectious faster. The temperature can also affect VBDs transmission by affecting the biting behavior, fecundity and survival of the vectors. For example, dengue viruses will develop in mosquitoes and be transmitted only if exposed to temperatures within the range of 20 to 35°C. In the host, the pathogen will find stable and suitable temperature conditions, since the host is regulating its own temperature.

How The VBDs are spreading now:

Global warming impacts the geographical distribution of vectors as they move away from the equator, towards more temperate regions. Northern countries in particular will see a greater number of VBDs as mosquitos start inhabiting regions where temperatures were previously too low.

For example, Northern China is witnessing an increase in Malaria, previously only seen in Southern China. Leishmaniasis, transmitted by sand flies which are moving from south to north in Europe and from north to south in Argentina. Sand flies are consequently now found in Belgium and Germany. Canada is witnessing the northward displacement of ticks responsible for Lyme disease.

Conclusion

One may argue, that Climate Change is a natural phenomena, and there is no doubt that this is indeed the case. However, the argument here is that for the First time in the history of Earth, a single complex biological entity has had a direct effect on the different climate systems which has impacted its own survivability negatively.